Josh Appelbaum examines where smart money is leaning for Thursday Night Football between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers.Week 15 of the NFL regular season kicks off tonight with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
8:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, 48.5)
The Rams (7-6) have won three of their last four games and just outlasted the Bills 44-42, winning outright as 3.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the 49ers (6-7) just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 38-13 win over the Bears, easily covering as 3-point home favorites.This line opened with San Francisco listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public sees a coin-flip game and is happy to take the points with the Rams, who have the better won-loss record and have played better over the past month. Early in the week, we saw the 49ers fall from -3 down to -2. However, despite 62% of spread bets taking Los Angeles and the points, the line has inched back up to 49ers -2.5, with San Francisco heavily juiced to -115 or -120, indicating a possible move back up to the key number of -3. This signals liability (and late sharp action) on the side of the 49ers, as the oddsmakers are making you pay a higher price to lay the points with San Francisco while offering a cheaper price to take the points with Los Angeles despite the fact that the Rams are the popular play.
The 49ers are in the rare position of being a “fade the trendy dog” contrarian favorite in a heavily bet primetime game. At DraftKings, the 49ers are only receiving 38% of spread bets but 49% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy. Those looking to bet against the public and follow the sharp bet split but also wary of laying points around a key number could elect to play the 49ers on the moneyline at -145. At Circa, which prides itself on taking in sharp action, the 49ers are receiving 53% of moneyline bets but a whopping 94% of moneyline dollars, a massive sharp bet split and further evidence of pro money playing San Francisco to win straight up.
Primetime favorites are 36-10 (78%) straight up this season with a 17% ROI. Thursday Night Football favorites are 13-3 (81%) straight up this season and 201-77 (72%) straight up with a 6% ROI since 2006. Thursday Night Football home favorites are 10-1 (91%) straight up this season and 22-6 (79%) straight up over the past two seasons. The short week is typically an advantage for the favorite, especially when they don’t have to travel. When both teams are coming off a win, as is the case here, the home favorite is 18-10 (64%) straight up this season and 85-32 (73%) straight up with an 8% ROI since 2022. Kyle Shanahan is 10-5 straight up against Sean McVay in 15 regular season head-to-head matchups. This is also a “desperation” play on the 49ers, who are a game below .500 and find themselves outside of the playoff picture.
In terms of the total, it opened at 47, got bet up to a high-water mark of 50 and has since fallen back down to 48.5 where it rests now. At DraftKings, the under is only taking in 31% of bets but 55% of dollars. However, Circa is showing 64% of bets and 94% of dollars on the over. Both teams are 7-6 to the over this season. The over is 9-7 (56%) on Thursday Night Football this season. The forecast calls for mid 50s with 7-10 MPH winds and possibly some rain.
Player Prop to Consider
George Kittle over 61.5 receiving yards (-110): Kittle just caught 6 passes for 151 yards last week against the Bears. He has gone over this number in four of his last six games. He’s been even better at home, going over this number in four straight games at Levi’s Stadium and 10 of his last 13. Kittle leads the team in receiving yards (800) and is is second on the team in targets (67), trailing only Jauan Jennings (78). The Rams are allowing 224.7 passing yards per game, ranking 23rd in the NFL. Los Angeles just gave up 342 passing yards to Josh Allen last week. This game features a high total, which bodes well for offensive output.
